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Investment Proposition

 
 

Outlook

Outlook

We delivered a solid financial performance over the first nine months of 2020 relative to our revised full year 2020 outlook as presented at the end of April. On a rebased basis, our year-to-date revenue decreased just over 2% and mainly reflected a 12% reduction in our other revenue, which includes amongst others (i) interconnect revenue, (ii) revenue related to the sale of handsets and (iii) advertising and production revenue from our media company De Vijver Media NV. Excluding our other revenue, which is most impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, our rebased revenue was broadly stable over the first nine months of 2020. For the full year, we maintain our rebased revenue forecast of around -2% versus 2019 with our rebased revenue profile excluding other revenue expected to remain broadly stable compared to last year.

Over the first three quarters of the year, our rebased Adjusted EBITDA increased modestly by 1%, driven by (i) lower sales and marketing expenses due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and last year's impact of the SFR customer migration and (ii) continued tight cost control. Looking at the remainder of the year, we believe we will outperform relative to our outlook assuming that no second COVID-related lockdown takes place. As such, we upgrade our rebased Adjusted EBITDA outlook for the full year from around -1% to broadly stable.

Given the robust nature of both our fixed and mobile infrastructure and our demonstrated track record of carefully balancing our future investments, we still expect our Operating Free Cash Flow to grow, more specifically between 1 and 2% on a rebased basis with Operating Free Cash Flow being broadly stable for the first nine months of the year. Finally, we continue to target Adjusted Free Cash Flow of €415.0 - €435.0 million, skewed however towards the lower end of this range. We are well on track given achieved Adjusted Free Cash Flow of €258.5 million for the first nine months of 2020.

 

OUTLOOK FY 2020 FY 2019 (rebased)c As presented on Feb 12, 2020 As amended on April 30, 2020 As amended on October 29, 2020
Revenue (rebased)(d) € 2,626.0 million Broadly stable Around -2% Around -2%
Revenue, excluding Other revenue (rebased) (d, e) € 2,089.4 million - Broadly stable Broadly stable
Adjusted EBITDA growth (rebased) (a) € 1,370.5 million Around 1% Around -1% Broadly stable
Operating Free Cash Flow growth (rebased) (a, b) € 819.2 million Around 2% 1-2% 1-2%
Adjusted Free Cash Flow (a, f) - € 415.0 - 435.0 million Lower end of the € 415.0 - 435.0 million range Lower end of the € 415.0 - 435.0 million range

(a) Quantitative reconciliations to net profit (including net profit growth rates) and cash flows from operating activities for our Adjusted EBITDA, Operating Free Cash Flow and Adjusted Free Cash Flow guidance cannot be provided without unreasonable efforts as we do not forecast (i) certain non-cash charges including depreciation and amortization and impairment, restructuring and other operating items included in net profit, nor (ii) specific changes in working capital that impact cash flows from operating activities. The items we do not forecast may vary significantly from period to period. (b) Excluding the recognition of the capitalized football broadcasting rights and mobile spectrum licenses and excluding the impact from IFRS 16 on our accrued capital expenditures. (c) Including the pre-acquisition revenue and Adjusted EBITDA of De Vijver Media (fully consolidated since June 3, 2019), excluding the revenue and Adjusted EBITDA of our former Luxembourg cable subsidiary Coditel S.à r.l. (deconsolidated as of April 1, 2020) and reflecting changes related to the IFRS accounting outcome of certain content rights agreements over the August 1 - December 31 period. (d) Relative to both our reported revenue for the full year 2019 and our reported revenue excluding other revenue for the full year 2019, our revenue outlook for the full year 2020 would be broadly stable (e) Other revenue includes (i) interconnect revenue from both our fixed-line and mobile telephony customers, (ii) advertising and production revenue from De Vijver Media NV, which we fully consolidated as of June 3, 2019, (iii) mobile handset sales, including the revenue earned under our "Choose Your Device" programs, (iv) wholesale revenue generated through both our commercial and regulated wholesale businesses, (v) product activation and installation fees and (vi) set-top box sales revenue as detailed under 2.1 Revenue. (f) Assuming certain payments are made on our current 2G and 3G mobile spectrum licenses in Q4 2020 and the tax payment on our 2019 tax return will not occur until early 2021.

For more information regarding our FY 2020 outlook, we refer to our Q3 2020 earnings release.